Week 14 - NFL Picks

Week 14 - NFL Picks:

Indy -7 over Den and OVER 43.5

Cincy +7 but lose to Min and UNDER 42.5

NYJ -4 over TB and OVER 36.5

Buf -2 over KC and UNDER 38

Chi +4 over GB and OVER 41.5

NO -10.5 over ATL and OVER 50

Det +14 but lose to BAL and UNDER 40

MIA +4 over Jax and OVER 43

NE -13 over CAR and OVER 43.5

SEA +7 over HOU and UNDER 44.5

STL +13 but lose to TEN and UNDER 41

OAK +1 over WAS and OVER 37.5

DAL -3 over SD and OVER 48.5

NYG +1.5 over PHI and UNDER 43.5

ARI -4 over SF and OVER 44.5

Last week's record - crappy

Overall record - above crappy

NFL - Week 13 Picks

NFL Week 13 Picks


Den (-6.5) @ KC O/U 39

Denver had a long week to prepare for this abysmal Kansas City squad. I like Josh McDaniels against Jeff Haley in a match up of Super Bowl Offensive Coordinators. The funny thing about this game is that both coaches are trying to build their team around the defense. Pick: Den by 13 and UNDER

Oak (+15) @ Pit O/U 37

Ben R. is coming back this week and should be well rested after his controversial "concussion" in Week 11. Here's what kills me about the Steelers. For a team that's known for being so tough and physical, they always seem to have a key player sit out for their games against the Ravens. Jerome Bettis was notorious for it and recently it's been Ben R. and Willie Parker. I'm glad Hines Ward had the guts to call him out...even if it was in the wrong context. He's probably sick of playing the Ravens too, but he's always been out there. Pick: Pit by 10 and UNDER

Hou (-1.5) @ Jax O/U 47

Houston's season was lost in the last two weeks. It was a snowball effect that started with the loss of their All-Pro TE, Owen Daniels. I look for the snowball to continue to build up as Coach Gary Kubiak starts packing his bags. Pick: Jax by 7 and OVER

Ten (+7) @ Ind O/U 46

This game is so bizarre for so many different reasons. If this had been in Week 7, their records would've been like this: Ten (0-6) @ Ind (6-0). Now, Tennessee is riding a 5 game win streak into Indy, who looks poised to remain undefeated. Guess when Tennessee started winning again? When Jeff Fisher pulled his famous Peyton Manning jersey stunt at the Tony Dungy charity event....Pick: Ten by a late FG and UNDER

Phi (-5) @ Atl O/U 43.5

Matt Ryan's turf toe may scare everyone else, but I'm a firm believer in Atlanta's journeyman back-up quarterback, Chris Redmond. It reminds me of when Steve Buerlein guided the Cowboys to the playoffs in the mid-90's. I also think this McNabb/Vick charade in Philly has just about worn everyone out. During their games, Vick is seen pouting away on the bench as McNabb seems to pull out victories without much help on offense. Both guys will probably be out of Philly at the end of yet another disappointing season. Pick: Atl by 4 and OVER

Det (+13.5) @ Cin O/U 42

I don't even want to get into the reasons why this game is so uninteresting. Pick: Cin by 7 and UNDER

NO (-10) @ Wash O/U 47

This game will get national attention for about 5 minutes. Washington will appear to have everything going their way for three quarters of the game, and Drew Brees will lead his Saints team on a late game scoring barrage to pull off the victory and keep their undefeated season alive. Pick: NO by 7 and UNDER

TB (+4) @ Car O/U 40

I'll take the underdog against Carolina any day of the week. Pick: Car by 3 and OVER

Stl (+9) @ Chi O/U 41

Can Jay Cutler pull himself together for a solid game this week? For his sake, I sure hope so. He doesn't want Urlacher to call him any more names this week. Pick: Chi by 17 and OVER

NE (-5) @ Mia O/U 46

I love New England in this game. Every bounce would have to go Miami's way in order for them to win this game. The chances of that happening are about 5 to 1...this is the NFL you know. Pick: NE by 14 and OVER

SD (-14) @ Cle O/U 42.5

San Diego is just playing their butts off on offense this year. Cleveland would rather not even put their offense on the field. Pick: SD by 17 and OVER

SF (-1) @ Sea O/U 41/5

Not interested....too far away. Pick: SF by 3 and UNDER

Dal (-1) @NYG O/U 45.5

Tony Romo's accuracy will be the question in this game. It's already a huge concern for the Cowboys and playing in the swirling winds at Giants Stadium doesn't help the matter. If we can see Miles Austin's pearly whites at least 3 times, then it will be a good day. Pick: Dal by 4 and UNDER

Min (-1.5) @ Ari O/U 48.5

The Vikings roll against frat boy, Matt Leinart. Pick: Min by 20 and UNDER

Bal (+3.5) @ GB O/U 43

Is it cold in Green Bay this early in December? With all of this talk about global warming and the polar ice caps melting, I'm not so sure. If it's cold, I like the Ravens. If it's chilly, I like the Ravens. If it's abnormally warm, I like the Ravens. Pick: Ravens by 3 and OVER

There's a game on tonight??

The first thing that I want to talk about this week is how embarrassed I am with last week’s picks. I could go on and on about all of the games that should have gone one way, but went the other. However, let’s start with some positives.

In just my second week of NFL picks, I’ve already established that I’m money picking the games straight up. I’m currently picking games at a 75% clip and in the past two weeks I’ve nailed four huge upsets and was on the verge of a fifth until the Eagles scored 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter against the Redskins. This is what I love about the NFL, the unpredictable nature of the beast. The thing that bothers me is this: I can’t remember a single season in which we’ve had this many great teams (Colts, Saints, Vikes, Cowboys, Pats, Chargers), even more bottom feeders (Lions, Browns, Rams, Bucs, Bills, Raiders, Redskins, Chiefs), more questionable coaching decisions, and less season ending injuries. The first and last part of the previous sentence is encouraging, but the other two parts are just terrifying. Where do those cellar dwellers go after this season? What can they possibly do to become relevant again? Is there anyone coming out of next April’s draft that can turn a franchise around? Sorry, the A.D.D. was kicking in there. Back to the picks…

Thursday Night - NFL Pick

NYJ (-3) @ Buf O/U 37

First, I would wager that 80% of America doesn’t have a clue about this game being televised tonight. This would be the game of the week if it were in Week 2 or 3, but Rex Ryan’s emotional breakdown, Mark Sanchez’s seven INTs in the past three games, and T.O.’s sub-par 3 TDs in the first 11 games of the season have given this game the same kind of buildup as the Lions/Browns matchup from Week 11. That game just so happened to be one of the most entertaining games of the season. I look for a similar pattern in tonight’s game. Buffalo’s defense will outscore New York’s offense and defense. Pick: Buf by 4 and OVER

Even after last week’s mediocre performance, I’m still profitable against the spread at 55%. I'm not so profitable when it comes to the Over/Under, my prognosticating abilities are shaky at best. My picks are a Shaq Free-Throwesque 44%. Here’s a breakdown of the past two weeks of football foresight:

Week 11 vs. spread: 10-6

Week 12 vs. spread: 7-8-1

Total: 17-14-1

Week 11 straight up: 14-2

Week 12 straight up: 10-6

Total: 24-8

Week 11 O/U: 8-8

Week 12 O/U: 6-10

Total: 14-18

Week 12 Picks

First off, I just want to thank everyone that's been following my blog for the past few weeks. Surprisingly, these blogs are way harder to promote than you can imagine.

Next, I wanted to give a shout out to the men and women overseas that don't have the luxury of being with friends and family this holiday season. Their sacrifice and commitment is second to none and I dare anyone to tell them otherwise. The blood, sweat, and tears that have been shed since 9/11 will certainly be remembered by my family this Thanksgiving and I would venture to say that many other families out there can say the same.

Before we get started here with picks, I'd like to mention that my record last week was 10-6 against the spread, 14-2 straight up, and 8-7-1 on the over/unders. So let's get those tickets ready to Vegas....I'm on a roll!

Now, on with the picks!

Green Bay (-12) @ Detroit O/U 48

This game just reeks. Detroit is coming off of a huge win against the Browns and will be playing without their starting QB (I stand corrected...Adam Schefter just tweeted that Stafford will start this week...Gutsy.). This was a no-brainer during the Brett Favre days in Packerland, but now that Dr. Aaron and Mr. Rodgers are playing QB for the Pack...anything's possible! My brain tells me Green Bay should enjoy a nice feast of tenderlions this Thanksgiving, but my gut tells me never to listen to my brain when it comes to the NFL. So....GB by 10 and UNDER

Oakland (+14) @ Dallas O/U 40

The Cowboys defense is just plain nasty. So nasty that Redskins QB, Jason Campbell, completed 13 of 13 passes on 3rd down for 150 yards and the Skins could only manage 6 points. This week the Cowboys offense was stripped by the local media of whatever shred of manhood they were clinging on to. I look for them to put the naysayers to bed and go looking for dinner against the lowly Raiders. Dallas by 17 and OVER.

NYG (-7) @ Denver O/U 42.5

Both teams are 1-4 in their last 5 games and have been written off by many so-called experts. Everyone had assumed that the "old" Giants were back after they jumped out to a commanding lead against the bandwagon Falcons. However, the Giants were outscored 24-14 in the second-half, but held on to win by a FG in OT. I believe this game will be low scoring and the Giants should be able to edge the overachieving Broncos with a late FG. Giants by 3 and UNDER

Week 12 Picks will be continued tomorrow! I hope everyone enjoys family, friends, football, turkey, stuffing, and dessert, in that specific order, this Thanksgiving. Best wishes!

NFL - Week 11 Picks

NFL Week 11 Breakdown

Lines are courtesy of www.bodog.com

Miami (+3) @ Carolina Over/Under 42.5

Ronnie Brown has been ruled out of this matchup between 4-5 teams with a foot injury he suffered last week against the Bucs. Not to be out done, Carolina’s one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both questionable. This game is a wife’s dream because both teams run the ball so much that the clock NEVER stops. It’s like watching Greg Maddux go eight innings without breaking a sweat and you haven’t even finished your hot dog yet. My gut tells me not to bet against Jake the Great and not to overlook Carolina’s record last year. Pick - Carolina by 7 and OVER

Cleveland (+3.5) @ Detroit O/U 38

(Shaking my head) If Brady Quinn can’t throw for 300 yards against this defense…he never will. Detroit’s pass defense is dead last in the league and they’ve given up 20 touchdown passes and a staggering 107 QB rating. I’m still not buying into the Browns. Pick – Detroit by 10 and UNDER

Buffalo (+9) @ Jacksonville O/U 43

I tend to like Buffalo when they’re matched up against a team that really has no identity on offense. Jacksonville appears to be a run first team by averaging over 140 yards rushing, but they’ve won three of their past four games relying on David Garrard and the passing game. This doesn’t bode well for the Jags considering they’re up against league’s leading ball-hawk. Look for the Jags to pull off a close victory, but the Bills will cover the 9 point spread. Pick – Jags by 4 and UNDER

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Kansas City O/U 40

Sunday’s game against the Steelers caps off a terrible week for the Chiefs. First they released their franchise running back, Larry Johnson, due to off the field issues and lack of production. Next, Dwayne Bowe was suspended for the next four games for using a diuretic during training camp. Now, they’re facing a Pittsburgh team that would love nothing more than to tear them apart this Sunday and leave no doubt that they belong in the Super Bowl discussion. Pick – Pittsburgh by 17 and OVER

Indianapolis (-1) @ Baltimore O/U 44

In their first game since they matched up against “Cleveland Browns Era” Bill Belichick, Indy looks to remain undefeated against Ray Lewis and a furious Ravens squad (See Brady Quinn here). Who am I to pick against General Manning? I’m pretty sure he radios in the defensive audibles to Gary Brackett while he’s shooting commercials between possessions. Pick – Indy by 3 and UNDER

Atlanta (+7) @ NY Giants O/U 46

Atlanta’s offensive line has been labeled as “soft” after the New England game earlier this year. When you pair that with the fact that New York is coming off a bye week and their defensive front is as good as any in the NFL, the magic 8-ball says the “outlook not so good”. Pick – NY by 13 and UNDER

49ers (+7) @ Green Bay O/U 42

If Coach Singletary can stick to the ground game and keep Green Bay’s offense off the field, the 49ers have a good chance to keep this close. The 49ers are coming off of a quasi bye-week since they played Chicago last Thursday. I think the 49ers will cover the spread and possibly win straight up. Pick – GB by 3 and OVER

Seattle (+11) @ Minnesota O/U 46.5

Brett Favre’s home passer rating is a torrid 113…Pick – Min by 17 or more and UNDER

Washington (+11) @ Dallas O/U 41.5

Last week, Jason Campbell was given enough time in the pocket due to Denver’s undersized defensive line and their 4-3 scheme. That luxury is now gone and the Redskins face two of the fiercest pass rushers in the NFL in DeMarcus Ware (7 sacks) and Jay Ratliff (4 sacks). Look for the Dallas offense to rebound and try to open up the passing game by establishing the run early on. Pick – Dallas by 13 and OVER

New Orleans (-11) @ Tampa Bay O/U 51

Drew Brees is going up against a mediocre pass defense in Tampa Bay, but the number that jumps out is 19. That’s how many touchdown passes the Bucs have given up this season, the third most in the league. The one drawback to this matchup is in the last 10 meetings, the margin of victory was more than 10 only three times. New Orleans is also 4-6 on grass in their last 10 games. The Bucs cover the spread but the Saints pull away late. Pick – New Orleans by 10 and OVER

Arizona (-9) @ St. Louis O/U 47

Kurt Warner makes his return to St. Louis and he brings along the best Arizona Cardinal team that’s ever taken the field. No joke. Warner is 3-0 all-time, as a Cardinal, when he makes the trip to the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. He’s also thrown for over 800 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in those contests. Pick – Arizona by 20 and UNDER

NY Jets (+10.5) @ New England O/U 45

Rex Ryan has the least enviable job in sports this week. Back in Week 2, his Jets pulled off an unexpected victory against a timid Tom Brady. They were full of swagger and the trash talking was hardly at a premium. Since that game, Brady has thrown for 17 TD’s and only 4 INT’s and the Jets have won just 2 of their last seven games. Add that to the fire Coach Bill Belichick was under during the course of the week and the final product should go something like this…Pick – Patriots by 21 and OVER

Cincinnati (-10) @ Oakland O/U 36

UPSET of the week alert! My gut tells me that these three things will happen on Sunday for the Raiders: Chad Ocho Cinco will have exactly 3 heated conversations with Carson Palmer due to the play of Oakland’s shut-down corner, Nnamdi Asomugha. Cincinnati’s offense will look lost and the commentators will automatically discredit everything they’ve done this season. Sebastian Janikowski will hit four field goals of 40 yards or more and the Raiders will pull off another upset at home. Pick – Oak by 3 and UNDER

San Diego (NL) @ Denver O/U – N/A

Will Kyle Orton play? Does it matter? San Diego has put together an impressive four-game winning streak including wins against the Giants and Eagles. Denver, on the other hand, has lost three straight. I’m sure if Orton plays, the line will be something like DEN -3. It doesn’t matter to me if John Elway comes out of retirement to suit up this Sunday…Pick – SD by 9 and UNDER 44

Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago O/U 45

Andy Reid has to prove these four things before the Eagles can make me a believer: A.) Stick to one QB and drop the whole Mike Vick/wildcat formation B.) Fire the guy that convinces him to challenge the most ridiculous plays and lose timeouts C.) Figure out how to manage the clock at the end of games D.) STOP throwing the ball 50 times and start letting your defense win some games, instead of having them bail your offense out. Pick – Phi by 3 and OVER

Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston O/U 48

Texans fans aren’t going to like this, but the loss of Owen Daniels was WAAYY bigger than most people thought. Daniels was the safety valve to the high-powered Texans passing attack. He also provided over the middle routes that opened up the outside for Andre Johnson. Now, the Titans can clampdown the outside routes and really rush the passer. Controversy at the running back position doesn’t give me any confidence in the Texans heading into Monday Night. This looks like a classic 24-21 game and it will be another happy homecoming for Vince Young. Pick – Tennessee by 3 and UNDER

I hope everyone enjoys the games on Sunday. Please remember our troops overseas during next week’s holiday festivities.