NFL - Week 11 Picks

NFL Week 11 Breakdown

Lines are courtesy of www.bodog.com

Miami (+3) @ Carolina Over/Under 42.5

Ronnie Brown has been ruled out of this matchup between 4-5 teams with a foot injury he suffered last week against the Bucs. Not to be out done, Carolina’s one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both questionable. This game is a wife’s dream because both teams run the ball so much that the clock NEVER stops. It’s like watching Greg Maddux go eight innings without breaking a sweat and you haven’t even finished your hot dog yet. My gut tells me not to bet against Jake the Great and not to overlook Carolina’s record last year. Pick - Carolina by 7 and OVER

Cleveland (+3.5) @ Detroit O/U 38

(Shaking my head) If Brady Quinn can’t throw for 300 yards against this defense…he never will. Detroit’s pass defense is dead last in the league and they’ve given up 20 touchdown passes and a staggering 107 QB rating. I’m still not buying into the Browns. Pick – Detroit by 10 and UNDER

Buffalo (+9) @ Jacksonville O/U 43

I tend to like Buffalo when they’re matched up against a team that really has no identity on offense. Jacksonville appears to be a run first team by averaging over 140 yards rushing, but they’ve won three of their past four games relying on David Garrard and the passing game. This doesn’t bode well for the Jags considering they’re up against league’s leading ball-hawk. Look for the Jags to pull off a close victory, but the Bills will cover the 9 point spread. Pick – Jags by 4 and UNDER

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Kansas City O/U 40

Sunday’s game against the Steelers caps off a terrible week for the Chiefs. First they released their franchise running back, Larry Johnson, due to off the field issues and lack of production. Next, Dwayne Bowe was suspended for the next four games for using a diuretic during training camp. Now, they’re facing a Pittsburgh team that would love nothing more than to tear them apart this Sunday and leave no doubt that they belong in the Super Bowl discussion. Pick – Pittsburgh by 17 and OVER

Indianapolis (-1) @ Baltimore O/U 44

In their first game since they matched up against “Cleveland Browns Era” Bill Belichick, Indy looks to remain undefeated against Ray Lewis and a furious Ravens squad (See Brady Quinn here). Who am I to pick against General Manning? I’m pretty sure he radios in the defensive audibles to Gary Brackett while he’s shooting commercials between possessions. Pick – Indy by 3 and UNDER

Atlanta (+7) @ NY Giants O/U 46

Atlanta’s offensive line has been labeled as “soft” after the New England game earlier this year. When you pair that with the fact that New York is coming off a bye week and their defensive front is as good as any in the NFL, the magic 8-ball says the “outlook not so good”. Pick – NY by 13 and UNDER

49ers (+7) @ Green Bay O/U 42

If Coach Singletary can stick to the ground game and keep Green Bay’s offense off the field, the 49ers have a good chance to keep this close. The 49ers are coming off of a quasi bye-week since they played Chicago last Thursday. I think the 49ers will cover the spread and possibly win straight up. Pick – GB by 3 and OVER

Seattle (+11) @ Minnesota O/U 46.5

Brett Favre’s home passer rating is a torrid 113…Pick – Min by 17 or more and UNDER

Washington (+11) @ Dallas O/U 41.5

Last week, Jason Campbell was given enough time in the pocket due to Denver’s undersized defensive line and their 4-3 scheme. That luxury is now gone and the Redskins face two of the fiercest pass rushers in the NFL in DeMarcus Ware (7 sacks) and Jay Ratliff (4 sacks). Look for the Dallas offense to rebound and try to open up the passing game by establishing the run early on. Pick – Dallas by 13 and OVER

New Orleans (-11) @ Tampa Bay O/U 51

Drew Brees is going up against a mediocre pass defense in Tampa Bay, but the number that jumps out is 19. That’s how many touchdown passes the Bucs have given up this season, the third most in the league. The one drawback to this matchup is in the last 10 meetings, the margin of victory was more than 10 only three times. New Orleans is also 4-6 on grass in their last 10 games. The Bucs cover the spread but the Saints pull away late. Pick – New Orleans by 10 and OVER

Arizona (-9) @ St. Louis O/U 47

Kurt Warner makes his return to St. Louis and he brings along the best Arizona Cardinal team that’s ever taken the field. No joke. Warner is 3-0 all-time, as a Cardinal, when he makes the trip to the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. He’s also thrown for over 800 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in those contests. Pick – Arizona by 20 and UNDER

NY Jets (+10.5) @ New England O/U 45

Rex Ryan has the least enviable job in sports this week. Back in Week 2, his Jets pulled off an unexpected victory against a timid Tom Brady. They were full of swagger and the trash talking was hardly at a premium. Since that game, Brady has thrown for 17 TD’s and only 4 INT’s and the Jets have won just 2 of their last seven games. Add that to the fire Coach Bill Belichick was under during the course of the week and the final product should go something like this…Pick – Patriots by 21 and OVER

Cincinnati (-10) @ Oakland O/U 36

UPSET of the week alert! My gut tells me that these three things will happen on Sunday for the Raiders: Chad Ocho Cinco will have exactly 3 heated conversations with Carson Palmer due to the play of Oakland’s shut-down corner, Nnamdi Asomugha. Cincinnati’s offense will look lost and the commentators will automatically discredit everything they’ve done this season. Sebastian Janikowski will hit four field goals of 40 yards or more and the Raiders will pull off another upset at home. Pick – Oak by 3 and UNDER

San Diego (NL) @ Denver O/U – N/A

Will Kyle Orton play? Does it matter? San Diego has put together an impressive four-game winning streak including wins against the Giants and Eagles. Denver, on the other hand, has lost three straight. I’m sure if Orton plays, the line will be something like DEN -3. It doesn’t matter to me if John Elway comes out of retirement to suit up this Sunday…Pick – SD by 9 and UNDER 44

Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago O/U 45

Andy Reid has to prove these four things before the Eagles can make me a believer: A.) Stick to one QB and drop the whole Mike Vick/wildcat formation B.) Fire the guy that convinces him to challenge the most ridiculous plays and lose timeouts C.) Figure out how to manage the clock at the end of games D.) STOP throwing the ball 50 times and start letting your defense win some games, instead of having them bail your offense out. Pick – Phi by 3 and OVER

Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston O/U 48

Texans fans aren’t going to like this, but the loss of Owen Daniels was WAAYY bigger than most people thought. Daniels was the safety valve to the high-powered Texans passing attack. He also provided over the middle routes that opened up the outside for Andre Johnson. Now, the Titans can clampdown the outside routes and really rush the passer. Controversy at the running back position doesn’t give me any confidence in the Texans heading into Monday Night. This looks like a classic 24-21 game and it will be another happy homecoming for Vince Young. Pick – Tennessee by 3 and UNDER

I hope everyone enjoys the games on Sunday. Please remember our troops overseas during next week’s holiday festivities.