Daydream Believers

Disclaimer:  These picks are purely for the sake of entertainment. No wagers are being made on my behalf nor are they being taken by me.  If you're betting on games, you're an idiot.  If you're using my picks to bet on games, at least you're doing it right.  Last week would have been your most profitable week, so you might as well stop while you're ahead.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Chicago @ Dallas (-8)

Since his infamous clothesline of Brian Orakpo last Sunday night, Alex Barron has sent me and every other Cowboys fan into a whirlwind of emotions.  I've even gone so far as to look up every single disastrous play the Cowboys have made in my 30-year existence.  In no particular order:

Leon Lett's Superbowl gaffe
Leon Lett's Thanksgiving blunder
Romo's fumbled snap
Cheerleaders (I love the feature on youtube where random videos are generated on the side bar using some of your keywords!)

As much as I would like to pick the Cowboys at home, after a loss, and because I'll need antidepressants if I don't...they still have Alex Barron AND he's going up against Julius Peppers.  Pick:  Cowboys win but don't cover the spread 20-17 on a special teams play in the 4th quarter.

Arizona @ Atlanta (-7)

At any other point in the season, the Falcons would have the better record here.  For that reason alone I've gotta go with the dirty-birds.  Pick:  Falcons cruise to a 31-16 win over the out gunned Cardinals don't call me Cardinal.  (Note:  I wonder if the Cardinals could actually beat the Stanford Cardinal this season?  Stanford scored touchdowns on it's first eight possessions yesterday against Wake Forest.)

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+3)

Can you say Monday night hangover?  Baltimore grinded out a tough road victory last Monday against the Jets, but this road game within their division should be too much to handle on 5 days of rest.  Pick:  Cincy jumps ahead early on the strength of their passing attack and holds off a late Ravens comeback for a 24-20 victory. (Note:  Did you know Mel Kiper Jr. is from Baltimore?  Can we name Baltimore the official home of the skunk mullet?  Just a thought.)

Kansas City @ Cleveland (-3)

Don't even second guess that spread.  I've looked on bodog.com, espn.com, cnnsi.com, and every other site that invades your computer with online slot machine pop-up windows.  It's legit.  Nothing says respect like beating your division's defending champs and turning into 3-point dogs in Cleveland the following week.  Either the Chiefs got really lucky last week or the Browns have vastly improved every part of their game.  I'm going with option A.  Pick:  Kansas City puts the hurt on a Browns team that still doesn't know how to get over the  Earnest Byner fumble from the 1987 AFC Championship game, 28-10.

Philadelphia @ Detroit (-7)

A criminal going to a crime riddled city to do his job....Mike Vick should be right at home in Detroit.  Pick:  Philly buys Andy Reid some more time by gutting the Lions 38-7.

Buffalo @ Green Bay (-14)

Our first double digit spread of the season, courtesy of the Buffalo Bills!  Other than the fact that NFL teams don't typically score in the triple digits, I can't find one reason why that line isn't Green Bay (-100).  Wait, I know...Brett Favre.  Pick:  Green Bay picks up another impressive win over a pathetic wannabe CFL squad, 34-9.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (-6)

Country music and wish-bone!  That's what Nashville does! Wouldn't it be great to see Vince Young and Chris Johnson line up in the old wish-bone offense?  Oh the collisions that would made near the sidelines!  I've got goosebumps.  The reality is that both teams play great defense, so you pick the team with the best player on offense and take a chance that they make some plays.  Pick:  Tennessee wins on a late fieldgoal, 13-10.

Miami @ Minnesota (-6)

Here's the play call in the Viking huddle:

Favre:  Ok guys I've been cleared to play today after having 37 cortisone injections and you know they make my vision a little blurry.  So, I can't read from my wrist band and I'm definitely not looking over Childress, he's just creepy.  AP just line up behind me and block until I can figure out their defense.  Harvin go deep, don't try to sit in the zone coverage, and I'll try not get your cappa detated from the rest of your body.  Ready break!

Here's how it should be:

Peterson:  Hey Brett did you collaborate with Keyshawn Johnson for your next book Just Let Me Throw the Damn Ball?  Well, I collaborated with Bo Jackson on my running back skills...so, I'm just sayin.

Pick:  Vikings get back on track with a 27-17 win.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-4)

Yawn.  Pick:  Tie 0-0.  Just kidding.  Panthers reel off a couple of late scores for a 24-17 win.

Seattle @ Denver (-4)

Kyle Orton and a slew of no-name receivers = winning while not covering the spread.  Pick:  Denver picks up a late field goal to rain on Pete Carroll's parade, 19-17.

St. Louis @ Oakland (-4)

Close call last week for Sam Bradford and company.  I'm convinced this kid will be a good quarterback for the next ten years.  The only sad thing is that Steven Jackson is in the twilight of his career and is likely to leave at the end of his current contract.  Maybe they could talk Marshall Faulk out of retirement.  Pick:  Oakland gets all the bounces in a rough start for Bradford, 27-13.

New England @ NY Jets (+3)

Rex Ryan better get his offense in order or else the Super Bowl dream becomes a wet-dream over night.  Randy Moss is on a mission to get a new contract and he might make it personal against Darrelle Revis (who did get a new contract).  Pick:  New England endures a sloppy first half and pulls away with a 24-17 victory.

Jacksonville @ San Diego (-7)

The statistics point to a San Diego blowout here.  Historically, teams that travel from one coast to another have a hard time adjusting to the time difference.  More so for West coast teams traveling east due to the early kickoff times.  I'm still confused as to why a Super Bowl contending team would let their Pro-Bowl Left Tackle and Wide Receiver hold out.  How do you not pay those guys?  If I'm Phillip Rivers here's what I say, "I'm holding out, not for a new contract, but until you guys pony up some cash for my only playmaker and my best bodyguard."  Pick:  San Diego finds a way to win 23-20.

Houston @ Washington (+3)

Here's your typical hangover game.  Let's see, who do we go with for the most hung over after beating their rivals at home in stunning fashion?  Every bit of me wants to pick the Texans, but I've grown to learn that the NFL is all about experience in games like this.  Pick:  Washington finds another way to deflate the state of Texas, 27-20.

NY Giants @ Indianapolis (-5)

Manning vs. Manning.  I'm not sure that actual football will be played during tonight's Manningfest. However, it is sponsored by Sony, DirecTV, Gatorade, Reebok, Oreo, the city of New Orleans, Archie Manning, the other Manning brother.....I'll be tuning into Mad Men, thank you very much.  Pick:  Manning puts together a late drive for a great comeback while the other Manning wears the infamous "Manning Face" the entire way and NBC cuts to it about 25 times including in the car riding home after the game.  NY wins 28-24.

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+6)

The Saints have had extra time to prepare for this game while the Niners have been licking their wounds.  Everything points to New Orleans here.....except two tiny little details.  Outdoors.  Grass surface.  Just two seasons ago, this same high-flying Saints offense went 1-5 on grass.  I'd like to think that playing without Darren Sharper and playing a road game outdoors on grass should level the playing field.  Pick:  49ers come through on the strength on their defense and a great running attack, 24-23.

Last Week's Record - 10-3-2
Overall Record - 10-3-2

2010: The Year of the Defense?

First of all, I'd like to thank everyone for supporting the blog through last season and into what looks to be an exciting 2010 NFL season. No sophomore slump in this blog, no sir. This year we're going bigger, better and more in depth than last year starting with my weekly picks, followed up with a Tuesday analysis of the weekend's big games.

You won't find any college football coverage here. I'm not Mel Kiper, I'm not Kirk Herbstreit and until the bright folks at the NCAA devise some sort of real playoff system and start punishing the real culprits inside of each and every recruiting scandal, consider this my formal boycott. I mean really, why should Matt Barkley and the rest of the crew at USC take it on the chin for Reggie Bush's antics back in 2005? Why not prosecute these former "student"-athletes, who've cheated their fans and Universities, for committing fraud? Oh, I know...because the NCAA isn't exactly the straightest shooter out there.

Back to the league where players make an honest living and their only problem is finding enough party favors that would put the 70's ABA to shame.

Let's glance into my brand new Apple iCrystal (Amazon.com $399) and breakdown how things will shake out in Week 1.

NFL Week 1 Picks:

Miami @ Buffalo (+3)

Miami is this year's trendy pick to win the AFC East division and they got a huge break this season when the league office released the new schedules. The Dolphins learned their annually most unanticipated game on the schedule was set for early September and not mid December. An eager and hungry Dolphin squad will roll into Buffalo on Sunday expecting to walk away 1-0. Hold the phone. Isn't Bill Parcells still employed by the Dolphins? Well, something's rotten in Miami and it reeks of old tuna. Meanwhile, the Bills have flown under the radar for the past few months even after having a malignant tumor removed in the form of Terrell Owens. Combine that with the fact that home field advantage still exists in the NFL and this has all the makings of a 16-9 stink bomb. Pick: Buffalo, 16-9.

Detroit @ Chicago (-7)

Detroit's main focus this offseason was to get rid of anything or anyone with ties to Matt Millen.  Much like Jimmy Johnson did with the Cowboys in the early 90's, Jim Schwartz started cleaning house on Day 1. A few gray hairs and roster moves later, Schwartz and company look primed for another losing season.  The only difference between this season and seasons past will be their level of competitiveness.  Expect a lot of close games out of these Lions, which should continue to help their confidence and give them hope in 2011.  The Bears are looking for some dividends out of the Jay Cutler investment.  I'm sorry, but when you put your franchise in the hands of a pouty spoiled brat, you get what you deserve. If you could compare NFL players to NBA players, Jay Cutler would be the equivalent of Baron Davis. He puts up great numbers, his teammates love him, and coaches love his game while continually being burned by his attitude.  Pick: Detroit covers the spread but Chicago pulls off a come from behind 24-21 victory.

Oakland @ Tennessee (-7)

Chris Johnson has been salivating for this game since his 2009 run for the record books came up just short of Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. His twitter account has been on overdrive the past couple of months after he announced his goal of 2,500 yards rushing this year.  Um, that's over 160 yards per game Mr. Johnson.  Oh yeah, you have Vince Young at quarterback.  This is totally doable. Pick: Tennessee runs wild for a 31-17 victory.

Cincinnati @ New England (-6)

All the talk this off-season about the Patriots has been more about their adolescent defense and not enough about Tom effing Brady and Randy Moss going into their 4th season together.  I'm not sure if you're aware of this but those guys are locks for the Hall of Fame.  If anyone thinks New England is on a "down" year...think again.  Do you think Brady would sign an extension if he didn't feel like they had a chance to win every season? As for the Bengals, their roster has done enough hard time to rank them ahead of Adam Sandler's squad from The Longest Yard for best prison league football team of all-time. Pick: New England will restore the faith by manhandling one of the AFC's best defenses for a 34-20 victory.

Carolina @ NY Giants (-7)

Addition by subtraction was a common theme among NFL teams this off-season and the Panthers were no different.  They dump flailing quarterback, Jake Delhomme on the Browns and have reason to believe that no matter who steps in to fill his shoes, they should be a considerable upgrade.  Their defense should again be in the top 5 against the pass.  Combine that with two above-average running backs and guess what you get? I have no idea.  This team has more people confused than DiCaprio in his latest thriller, Inception.  Eli Manning is prone to throw momentum killing interceptions and expect Ahmad Bradshaw to finally let the Giants know who the alpha dog is in their backfield.  Pick: The Giants give Panther fans something to cheer about, but for how long? Panthers take it 17-14

Falcons @ Steelers (+1.5)

I'm guilty of being completely biased about this game.  I can't stand people that rape or are accused of raping other people. Steelers: check.  I can't stand over-hyped running quarterbacks.  Steelers: check.  I can't stand teams that have beaten the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.  Steelers: check.  Even after running through that checklist, I still love their defense, coach, stadium, nickname, and even Polamalu's hair.  I hope for the Falcons sake that Matt Ryan isn't happy with being the Phillip Rivers of the NFC.  The Falcons will be in the discussion for Super Bowl favorites every season as long as Ryan plays Mr. Nice Guy with the media.  Please do not fall in love with the Chargers, Falcons, or Packers this season.  Give me one guy on each defense that has a decent post-sack dance. You can't.  Pick: Falcons were given this game when this famous quarterback decided that he was the coolest guy at a college club in Georgia.  Falcons win running away, 27-13.

Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-3)

This game is certainly right up there with Broncos vs. Jaguars for most irrelevant week one matchup.  Neither team can play the Tebow card here and they are unmatched in anti-star power.  Let's try to think of some superstars in this one....and now I've got a headache.  Bring back CHUCKY!!!  Pick: Experience will be key here and Cleveland runs rampant with guys who've sat on the bench before in the NFL.  That's more than Tampa Bay can say for themselves. Cleveland wins this season's toilet bowl by a touchdown, 21-14.

Denver @ Jacksonville (-3)

I'm giving Denver about 3 quarters of football before they hand over the keys to Tim Tebow.  Listen, they have no receivers and they really don't have a running game.  Solution:  Run Tebow, run!  This won't be enough against just about every NFL team this side of Oakland.  Pick: Jacksonville wins a laugher in front of their only sellout crowd (all wearing Tebow jerseys), 38-10.

Indianapolis @ Houston (+1.5)

I love the Texans at home against just about anybody.  I especially love them against an aging Reggie Wayne and the non-existent running game of the Colts.  However, I'm hung up on these three things:

1. Can Coach Kubiak really take this team to the elite level?  Are both Texas teams doomed by their own head coaches?
2. Can Matt Schaub stay healthy for 20 straight weeks?  He finally played an entire season last year, but that makes one out the past three.  
3. How much of a homer are you if you're rooting for any team or player with the letters TEX in their names?  I love Mark Texiera.  How can you get rid of that guy if you're the Texas Rangers?

Pick: Texans finally get over the hump in this one.  Schaub can at least make through week one, right? Houston wins 27-24.

Arizona @ St. Louis (+4)

This line really surprised me for the simple fact that both teams are pretty much throwing rookie quarterbacks into the mix.  I know Derek Anderson has been in the league a few years, but he still plays like a rookie.  Why else would Cleveland replace him with Jake Delhomme?  In a battle of inexperienced offenses, I've gotta take the home team plus the points.  Pick: Rams and Sam Bradford give St. Louis something to cheer about since their baseball team just crapped all over them the past two months.  23-20.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (+3)

The Packers have been getting the publicity this off-season and rightfully so, but Philadelphia is still sneaky strong.  I can't tell you how many times I've said they Eagles were toast and they always seem to make the playoffs.  It should be interesting without McNabb leading the offense for the first time in over 10 years.  I love home teams in Week 1, but I also love Aaron Rodgers' hair.  Pick:  Green Bay is too much for Kevin Kolb and company.  31-17.

San Francisco @ Seattle (+3)

Singletary vs. Carroll.  Integrity vs. Bailout.  Intensity vs. Street smarts.  If this were a battle of morality, the 49ers win running away.  Its not.  The NFL doesn't hand out merit badges and sell cookies.  Pick: Seahawks win on the strength of their home crowd and Carroll's enthusiasm.  13-10.

Dallas @ Washington (+3.5)

McNabb is 2-5 against the Cowboys in the past three seasons while playing for BETTER team.  Why should tonight be any different?  The Cowboys have concerns about the offensive line and how they're going to protect Tony Romo.  Local media have been hammering this point into the ground for over a month now and I feel like they're overlooking an important aspect of the game, defense.  The Cowboys still have DeMarcus Ware, Bradie James, Terrence Newman, and young Pro Bowler Mike Jenkins.  Pick:  Dallas wins a close one, 30-27.

Baltimore @ NY Jets (+1.5)

Most interesting match up by a long shot.  Both teams play great defense, run the football effectively, and have big personalities.  I love the off season acquisitions by the Ravens at wide receiver which was once their only weakness.  The Jets have been in the spotlight this entire off-season and they appear to be up for the challenge.  Monday night football will not get any better than this.  Pick: I've gotta take the home team in a game like this.  Jets win on a huge late defensive touchdown, 20-13.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+5)

Huh?  Um, why was this game chosen to be a part of the Monday night doubleheader?  Packers - Eagles? Cowboys - Redskins? Colts - Texans?  Even the Raiders - Titans match up is more interesting.  Oh well, Week 1 is still awesome.  Pick: Kansas City will stun the NFL and expose the Chargers without the help of their star wideout, Vincent Jackson.  21-17.