Hibernation

Dear readers (all nine of you),

My wife and I have been on a whirlwind of a holiday vacation since December 21st and this is literally the first time I've been able to sit down and put it all on paper. Err...keyboard. Err...you know what I mean. I would give you all an apology, albeit an empty one, that would be a little bit like winning a trophy for finishing in last place. I guess you can't really measure your stress/frustration level in the game of life when you're a.) trying to start a sports blog from scratch b.) taking 12 hours of classes this semester c.) working part-time in an industry that you never knew existed until 5 months ago, and d.) newly married since June 2009.

So, when a vacation presents itself....you seize the day my friends. That's exactly what I did. No blog. No school. No work. No wife....wait a second, she's still here. Well 3 for 4 isn't bad.

Over the past few weeks, my life has been oddly fulfilled. Maybe being married has some perks that I wasn't aware of. For instance, you get to celebrate multiple Christmases. We celebrated Christmas with her family in Houston first, then hustled up to Mabank for a quick Nichols family Christmas. I understand that it may start out being a perk and may eventually end up a nightmare, but Christmas 2009 was outstanding in my book. (The PS3, EOS Rebel, The Hangover DVD, and other goodies were just icing on the cake!)

To make a long story short, I'm still on vacation. Consider this my version of checking in. Or out...whichever makes more sense to you. I'll return to my normal weekly blog after the BCS National Championship game on January 8th. My plan is to be the Vince Young of sports bloggers. Promising start....everything goes haywire for few weeks....then reels off seven straight wins out of nowhere. As my good friend Khayam would say, "I'll understand quantum physics 'fore I understand the NFL."

Have a happy New Year!

JNick

P.S. - Send me your New Year's resolutions. I'd like to know what everyone is planning for 2010.

Diggler and His Snarling Face

Initially this post was going to be geared towards my NFL picks for the day, but yesterday, my buddy Tyler had some tickets to last night's Mavs/Bobcats game. I know what you're thinking. The Bobcats? Yes, those Bobcats.

Let me explain. I really wanted to watch the Mavs live this year, especially after their key off-season acquisitions of Tim Thomas, Drew Gooden, and Roddy Beaubois. No I didn't. Yes I did. No I didn't. Actually, the mere thought of watching Tim Thomas and Drew Gooden on the same team, and taking a chance of seeing two of the most underachieving players in NBA history taking the court together, had not even entered my mind all season. What the hell, right?

Man, I'm glad I went to that game.

As always, the AA center was rocking the usual 106.1 KISS FM hip-hop jams before the game and occasionally catered to the middle aged crowd by sprinkling in some Tom Petty, Aerosmith, and some Stones. I'm still amazed at how easily accessible the arena is from I-35 and how painless it is park and get in and out of the game. The other Dallas owner should take a page out of Mark Cuban's book. There's a reason the Mavs have sold out their last 350+ games and have won over 50 games in each of the past 9 seasons.

The final quarter and overtime couldn't have been more entertaining. Mr. Diggler (Dirk Nowitzki) overshadowed any sort of black cloud that loomed over Dallas last night. He led the Mavs with 36 points and the go-ahead face snarling, fade-away jumper with 1.7 seconds left in OT.

What made this victory even sweeter was the look on Stephen Jackson's face after Dirk hit the game winning shot. Jackson has to be the second most disliked player in the NBA behind Ron Artest. Mavericks fans reserve a spot at the front of the line for the chance to inflict pain on this man at all costs. (Detroit fans could claim first, but they're worried more about the economy these days)

In 2006-07, the Mavs flirted with the best record in NBA history and were believed by many to be one of the greatest teams ever. That memorable season for the Mavs just happened to be wedged between two of the worst sports scenarios of all-time.

Scenario #1, June 2006: Dallas was fortunate enough to play it's way through a 7 game series against San Antonio and a 6 game series against Phoenix in order to make the franchise's first ever NBA Finals appearance. The Mavs jumped out to a quick 2-0 series lead with convincing victories over Dwayne Wade and the Miami Heat. To make a long story short and to keep me from chucking my wireless mouse across the room, Wade went on to take 73 free-throws in the final four games of the series to capture the title for the Heat. (I'm gonna have to side with Tim Donaghy here.)

Scenario #2, June 2007: Following their run at history, the Mavericks, for one night, took their foot off the gas and rested their starters before the playoffs. This proved to be one of the biggest blunders in sports history as the Mavericks were defeated in the first round of the playoffs and became the butt of many NBA jokes for the second straight year.

I'm not sure if the Mavs head coach, Avery Johnson, did it out of respect for his mentor and former coach, Don Nelson, or if he was just giving his starters a night off to regain their legs. This much I do know, it wasn't the final game of the regular season, it was the second to last game. The Mavs actually played their starters in the final game of the season and that's what makes this weird. Did the Mavericks want to face off in the first round of the playoffs against their former head coach and his erratic style of play, which happened to beat them 3 out of 4 times during that particular regular season? OR....did the NBA arrange this series? I would argue the latter based on the TV ratings for that series (3.77 million viewers for Game 7).

Anyway, this brings me to my point. Stephen Jackson and his thug attitude during that 2007 playoff series were so polarizing to Dallas fans that he immediately was cast into the same breath as Leon Lett, Roy Tarpley, Jim Jackson, and any Washington Redskins player. So last night was a great way to get back at Stephen Jackson and his shenanigans (note: Jackson scored 28 points and every time he made a shot, the crowed just hissed. I loved it.).

Tim Thomas and Drew Gooden combined for 15 min of playing time. Whew.

NFL Picks are below!

Week 14 - NFL Picks

Week 14 - NFL Picks:

Indy -7 over Den and OVER 43.5

Cincy +7 but lose to Min and UNDER 42.5

NYJ -4 over TB and OVER 36.5

Buf -2 over KC and UNDER 38

Chi +4 over GB and OVER 41.5

NO -10.5 over ATL and OVER 50

Det +14 but lose to BAL and UNDER 40

MIA +4 over Jax and OVER 43

NE -13 over CAR and OVER 43.5

SEA +7 over HOU and UNDER 44.5

STL +13 but lose to TEN and UNDER 41

OAK +1 over WAS and OVER 37.5

DAL -3 over SD and OVER 48.5

NYG +1.5 over PHI and UNDER 43.5

ARI -4 over SF and OVER 44.5

Last week's record - crappy

Overall record - above crappy

Heisman Trophy Jinx?

The following exchange was taken from a future conversation at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York on, or around the night of December 11, 2009:

(Silence in the room...)

Trophy Presenter: Let me ask you guys again, which one of you really, and I mean REALLY, wants to win this year's Heisman Trophy?

(...more silence)

Tim Tebow: Here we go again. You know, this is the third time that I've been invited to this crappy event and I just wish you guys would leave me alone. I've sacrificed enough already. Friday nights are game nights for my bible study, and tonight I'm missing Settlers of Catan. Plus, I could really use this time to work on my throwing mechanics and try to impress the NFL scouts with another heroic performance in a bowl game.

Mark Ingram: What's with this dark room? Why are all the doors locked?

Ndamakong Suh: Look, I didn't come all the way from Nebraska to be involved in some crazy head game. I came to win what's rightfully mine.

Toby Gerhart: Wait, I thought members of the media voted for the winner?

T.P.: Mr. Gerhart, you surprise me. I certainly would have pegged you as a historian of the game, especially coming from Stanford, a program with such academic tradition. Gentlemen, all of you must realize the profound risk you're taking by accepting or declining this prestigious award. Over the past 20 years, many of the game's greatest players have come before you, in this very room, and decided their own fates. This is far from a game, as Mr. Suh would have you believe, it's your future.

Colt McCoy (shocked): Jeez, you guys were serious last year. Bradford had me convinced this was all just a hoax and he accepted the award because he's claustrophobic and has bladder control problems when he's locked in a dark room, or maybe that only happens in the huddle. Darn it Suh, why'd you have to hit me so many times last week?

T.P.: As you all know, Sam Bradford was the gracious recipient of the trophy last year and surprised us all when he chose to stay in school for another year of "seasoning". Shortly after the ceremony, we cautioned Mr. Bradford about the, um...side effects of winning our coveted award. He refused to listen to the voice of reason that encouraged him to enter the NFL draft and become financially secure before any forces that the trophy may exert could affect him negatively.

McCoy: You're telling me that the trophy was responsible for Sam's injury?

T.P.: Not completely. It was Mr. Bradford's fate. He watched his entire offensive line leave for the NFL and/or graduate and it was he, himself, who decided to carry the hopes and dreams of an entire state on his "shoulders". Sadly, that was such a tremendous amount of pressure that, in the end, his shoulder just couldn't withstand.

Tebow: Why didn't anything happen to me the past two seasons, after becoming the first sophomore ever to win the Heisman?

T.P.: Tim, sometimes the trophy waits to unleash it's powers until a player begins his career in the NFL.

Gerhart: So, are you saying that there's a guarantee that something bad will happen to whoever accepts the Heisman Trophy?

T.P.: Gentlemen, the numbers don't lie. Success in the NFL has eluded even the best of college players over the past 20 years. Let me give you some examples: Andre Ware, Ty Detmer, Gino Torretta, Charlie Ward, Rashan Salaam, Danny Wuerffel, Ron Dayne, Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Jason White, Matt Leinart, and Troy Smith...

Gerhart: If my Stanford math is accurate, that's 12 out of the last 20 and it doesn't even include Bradford and Tebow.

T.P.: That's right. Even in the rare case in which the Heisman trophy winner had moderate success in the NFL, the trophy showed no mercy. Ricky Williams tested positive for marijuana and took a year off to smoke drugs and learn the ancient Indian system of holistic medicine. Eddie George performed particularly well for a Heisman winner, but his Titans came up one yard short in Super Bowl XXXIV. Another winner, Carson Palmer, led the Bengals to an 11-5 record and a division title in only his second season as starter. He then suffered a career threatening knee injury on his first ever pass attempt in the playoffs. Shall I keep going?

Suh: What about Charles Woodson, the last defensive player to win the Heisman?

T.P.: Charles had experienced great success in both his college and pro careers, but as you may have already guessed, the Heisman curse struck again at the most unfortunate of times. Woodson's sack and forced fumble on Tom Brady in the snow covered 2002 AFC Divisional playoff game appeared to have propelled the Raiders to a surefire victory. After a long review of the play, the referees ruled in favor of the Patriots and Mr. Brady, claiming his arm was moving forward at the time of the fumble. Vinatieri nails a 23 yarder for the victory.

Tebow: Look guys, don't let this clown scare you. Those are all just strange coincidences that happen to involve Heisman Trophy winners. Take it from me, the trophy has given me many blessings over the past two years and I don't expect any of that to change.

McCoy: But Tim, what if you get drafted by the Browns?

Gerhart: Or even worse, Colt...the Raiders? Holy smokes. You can count me out.

Tebow: Yeah, I don't really want to chance that whole Raiders thing. I'm gonna leave this one up to the man upstairs. I'm out.

McCoy: We fought hard all season long and I want to win the national championship this year. I'm out.

Suh: The only rule the NFL is going to make that involves my name will be because I tore off some quarterback's head. I'm out.

(All four seniors stare at Mark Ingram)

to be continued...

NFL - Week 13 Picks

NFL Week 13 Picks


Den (-6.5) @ KC O/U 39

Denver had a long week to prepare for this abysmal Kansas City squad. I like Josh McDaniels against Jeff Haley in a match up of Super Bowl Offensive Coordinators. The funny thing about this game is that both coaches are trying to build their team around the defense. Pick: Den by 13 and UNDER

Oak (+15) @ Pit O/U 37

Ben R. is coming back this week and should be well rested after his controversial "concussion" in Week 11. Here's what kills me about the Steelers. For a team that's known for being so tough and physical, they always seem to have a key player sit out for their games against the Ravens. Jerome Bettis was notorious for it and recently it's been Ben R. and Willie Parker. I'm glad Hines Ward had the guts to call him out...even if it was in the wrong context. He's probably sick of playing the Ravens too, but he's always been out there. Pick: Pit by 10 and UNDER

Hou (-1.5) @ Jax O/U 47

Houston's season was lost in the last two weeks. It was a snowball effect that started with the loss of their All-Pro TE, Owen Daniels. I look for the snowball to continue to build up as Coach Gary Kubiak starts packing his bags. Pick: Jax by 7 and OVER

Ten (+7) @ Ind O/U 46

This game is so bizarre for so many different reasons. If this had been in Week 7, their records would've been like this: Ten (0-6) @ Ind (6-0). Now, Tennessee is riding a 5 game win streak into Indy, who looks poised to remain undefeated. Guess when Tennessee started winning again? When Jeff Fisher pulled his famous Peyton Manning jersey stunt at the Tony Dungy charity event....Pick: Ten by a late FG and UNDER

Phi (-5) @ Atl O/U 43.5

Matt Ryan's turf toe may scare everyone else, but I'm a firm believer in Atlanta's journeyman back-up quarterback, Chris Redmond. It reminds me of when Steve Buerlein guided the Cowboys to the playoffs in the mid-90's. I also think this McNabb/Vick charade in Philly has just about worn everyone out. During their games, Vick is seen pouting away on the bench as McNabb seems to pull out victories without much help on offense. Both guys will probably be out of Philly at the end of yet another disappointing season. Pick: Atl by 4 and OVER

Det (+13.5) @ Cin O/U 42

I don't even want to get into the reasons why this game is so uninteresting. Pick: Cin by 7 and UNDER

NO (-10) @ Wash O/U 47

This game will get national attention for about 5 minutes. Washington will appear to have everything going their way for three quarters of the game, and Drew Brees will lead his Saints team on a late game scoring barrage to pull off the victory and keep their undefeated season alive. Pick: NO by 7 and UNDER

TB (+4) @ Car O/U 40

I'll take the underdog against Carolina any day of the week. Pick: Car by 3 and OVER

Stl (+9) @ Chi O/U 41

Can Jay Cutler pull himself together for a solid game this week? For his sake, I sure hope so. He doesn't want Urlacher to call him any more names this week. Pick: Chi by 17 and OVER

NE (-5) @ Mia O/U 46

I love New England in this game. Every bounce would have to go Miami's way in order for them to win this game. The chances of that happening are about 5 to 1...this is the NFL you know. Pick: NE by 14 and OVER

SD (-14) @ Cle O/U 42.5

San Diego is just playing their butts off on offense this year. Cleveland would rather not even put their offense on the field. Pick: SD by 17 and OVER

SF (-1) @ Sea O/U 41/5

Not interested....too far away. Pick: SF by 3 and UNDER

Dal (-1) @NYG O/U 45.5

Tony Romo's accuracy will be the question in this game. It's already a huge concern for the Cowboys and playing in the swirling winds at Giants Stadium doesn't help the matter. If we can see Miles Austin's pearly whites at least 3 times, then it will be a good day. Pick: Dal by 4 and UNDER

Min (-1.5) @ Ari O/U 48.5

The Vikings roll against frat boy, Matt Leinart. Pick: Min by 20 and UNDER

Bal (+3.5) @ GB O/U 43

Is it cold in Green Bay this early in December? With all of this talk about global warming and the polar ice caps melting, I'm not so sure. If it's cold, I like the Ravens. If it's chilly, I like the Ravens. If it's abnormally warm, I like the Ravens. Pick: Ravens by 3 and OVER

Old School

Call me boring. Call me a antiquated. Call me old school. Whenever I watch college football these days, it makes me cringe every time I see a "dual threat" quarterback, a 6'7" point guard, or better yet, a 6'4" 230lb safety. My problem isn't with the athlete that I'm watching. They're hardly to blame for using their athletic gifts.

The blame lies solely on the shoulders of the college and high school coaches who misguide their student-athletes. Are these coaches doing their due diligence or are they just trying to be progressive in their respective sports at the expense of their athletes?

Naturally, every sports fan will fire back at me with shots like "what's wrong with being progressive?" or "Isn't a dual threat QB a good thing?". My response is that there's nothing wrong with being progressive and yes, a dual threat QB is a great thing...when they happen to be a pocket passer with wheels and can score in the double digits of a Wonderlic test and by being progressive, it actually means improving an already functional system.

Let me ask you this: Can you name more than one dual threat QB to win a Super Bowl or a National Championship? There are three names that come to mind: Former Texas QB, Vince Young in 2005, current University Florida QB, Tim Tebow, and former 49er great, Steve Young, have been the most successful dual threat quarterbacks in football. Tebow and Vince Young have electrified fans with their play-making ability and carried their respective teams to NCAA titles. Steve Young didn't exactly electrify with his feet as much as he did with his laser-guided left arm, but he did rack up 4,239 career rushing yards.

Now, let me ask you this: How many athletic quarterbacks were highly regarded in college, but failed to win championships, and were high draft picks in the NFL and yet again, failed to win Super Bowls? I can name at least eight: Michael Vick (1st Overall Pick), Donovan McNabb (2nd Overall), Alex Smith (1st Overall), Charlie Ward (played in the NBA), Eric Crouch (Played 1 season as WR in the NFL), Randall Cunningham (2nd Round), Kordell Stewart (Played WR/RB/QB/P in the NFL), and Steve McNair (lost in the Super Bowl).

Suppose you were a coach and a statistician came up to you with a breakdown of the previous two paragraphs that looked like this -

Probability that your "dual threat" quarterback will win an NCAA championship - 1/20 (There have been four to six that have ever done this by my count, and Eric Crouch is a stretch)

Probability that your "athletic" quarterback will win a Super Bowl in the NFL - 1/43 (only one Super Bowl win by Steve Young)

No coach in their right mind would set up their own players for failure in their future professions for the sake of padding their own coaching resume, right? One would like to think so, but then there's Urban Meyer. He's at the head of the class when it comes to coaching quarterbacks with "upside" that eventually crumble in the NFL. Meyer's list includes the aforementioned Tebow, Josh Harris, Chris Leak, and Alex Smith. Each were utilized in his "progressive" spread offense that has won Meyer two national championships, two Mountain West Conference championships, and two Southeastern Conference championships. (Honorable mention for the coach who's most likely to kill a quarterback's chances in the NFL would have to be Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech - Michael Vick, Marcus Vick, Bryan Randall, and Tyrod Taylor to name a few)

Not surprisingly, Meyer's version of the spread has produced some of the most prolific individual rushing and passing seasons by a college quarterback in the history of college football. This is great for Meyer and even better for his quarterbacks...while they're still in school anyways. What is surprising is the lack of translation those numbers have when it comes to the NFL.

Meyer's spread offense demands athleticism and a strong arm. His quarterbacks rely on the scheme and their instincts. The occasional Cover 2 read or blitz read is needed, but for the most part, the plays are designed so well that it doesn't matter what defense they're facing. This may win his quarterbacks a Heisman Trophy or two, but it does them no justice when it comes to preparation for the NFL. My fear is that as long as sports fans and the media are obsessed with statistics, Meyer will always be judged as one of the best coaches in our era and continue to ruin the professional-potential of his quarterbacks.

The very thought of college football turning into nothing more than a high scoring track meet doesn't interest me one bit. There's a reason why track-and-field is only televised once every four years and that the Arena Football League quit for a season to "reorganize". I'll take a 20-17 chess match of field position, defensive adjustments, and a handful of play-action passes any day of the week. The day college football returns to it's glory of decades past, I'll consider myself a fan.

Side Note: While writing this, I was watching the SEC Championship game between Florida and Alabama. Here's what I came away with about Tebow and Alabama's pocket-passer, Greg McElroy:

• Perhaps this was Tebow's only game of his career against an NFL type defense...he didn't look comfortable at all. He still holds the football too low during his drop backs and his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired.
  

• Greg McElroy (Southlake Carroll HS, Texas), looked like Joe Montana in this game. He made every subtle play that a pocket-passer is expected to make to lead his team to a victory. His decision making was sharp and the execution of his throws was phenomenal.

Check back tomorrow for my NFL picks!

There's a game on tonight??

The first thing that I want to talk about this week is how embarrassed I am with last week’s picks. I could go on and on about all of the games that should have gone one way, but went the other. However, let’s start with some positives.

In just my second week of NFL picks, I’ve already established that I’m money picking the games straight up. I’m currently picking games at a 75% clip and in the past two weeks I’ve nailed four huge upsets and was on the verge of a fifth until the Eagles scored 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter against the Redskins. This is what I love about the NFL, the unpredictable nature of the beast. The thing that bothers me is this: I can’t remember a single season in which we’ve had this many great teams (Colts, Saints, Vikes, Cowboys, Pats, Chargers), even more bottom feeders (Lions, Browns, Rams, Bucs, Bills, Raiders, Redskins, Chiefs), more questionable coaching decisions, and less season ending injuries. The first and last part of the previous sentence is encouraging, but the other two parts are just terrifying. Where do those cellar dwellers go after this season? What can they possibly do to become relevant again? Is there anyone coming out of next April’s draft that can turn a franchise around? Sorry, the A.D.D. was kicking in there. Back to the picks…

Thursday Night - NFL Pick

NYJ (-3) @ Buf O/U 37

First, I would wager that 80% of America doesn’t have a clue about this game being televised tonight. This would be the game of the week if it were in Week 2 or 3, but Rex Ryan’s emotional breakdown, Mark Sanchez’s seven INTs in the past three games, and T.O.’s sub-par 3 TDs in the first 11 games of the season have given this game the same kind of buildup as the Lions/Browns matchup from Week 11. That game just so happened to be one of the most entertaining games of the season. I look for a similar pattern in tonight’s game. Buffalo’s defense will outscore New York’s offense and defense. Pick: Buf by 4 and OVER

Even after last week’s mediocre performance, I’m still profitable against the spread at 55%. I'm not so profitable when it comes to the Over/Under, my prognosticating abilities are shaky at best. My picks are a Shaq Free-Throwesque 44%. Here’s a breakdown of the past two weeks of football foresight:

Week 11 vs. spread: 10-6

Week 12 vs. spread: 7-8-1

Total: 17-14-1

Week 11 straight up: 14-2

Week 12 straight up: 10-6

Total: 24-8

Week 11 O/U: 8-8

Week 12 O/U: 6-10

Total: 14-18

NFL - Week 12 Picks

NFL - Week 12 Picks

Ind (-3.5) @ Hou O/U 48

The Texans are coming off a disappointing loss to the Titans on Monday night and the Colts are savoring a fresh victory over the Ravens. Taking the points against a shaky Indy secondary would be a wise move considering Dwight Freeney is out of today’s contest. Matt Schaub should take advantage of the extra time in the pocket and lead the Texans to a much needed victory over the rival Colts. Pick – Hou by 7 and UNDER

Cle (+14) @ Cin O/U 39.5

Both teams are coming back from devastating last-second road losses. Cincinnati appears to be prematurely anointed as a contender after their loss to the lowly Raiders. Two touchdowns are a lot of points for the Bengals to lay considering they’ve scored 17, 18, 17, 45, and 17 in their last 5 games. Pick – Cin by 9 and OVER

Wash (+10) @ Phi O/U 40.5

The Redskins are pathetic. These are the same banged up Redskins that came into Dallas and played their best game of the year and still only managed 6 measly points. Their number one ranked pass-defense shouldn’t scare the Eagles into throwing less and I expect LeSean McCoy to have a career day. This one could be close until halftime. Pick – Phi by 13 and OVER

Mia (-3.5) @ Buf O/U 39

The Bills would appear to have the deck stacked against them this week. Miami is coming off a quasi bye-week after playing last Thursday night, they’ve fired their head coach, Dick Jauron, and they lost a heartbreaker to Jacksonville last Sunday. That all equals one HUGE win for the Bills. Last Sunday, Terrell Owens had the breakout game that Buffalo fans had been yearning for all season. He should parlay that performance into another huge game today. Pick – Buf by 10 and UNDER

Sea (-4) @ Stl O/U 42.5

This game is just plain ugly. Nothing about this game interests me at all. Steven Jackson is having a remarkable season for the Rams, but he can’t find the end-zone unless he scampers for a 50 yarder. The Seahawks have a decent pass defense and should keep this low scoring. Pick – Stl by 3 and UNDER

TB (+13) @ Atl O/U 46

The Falcons have been looking forward to this game for quite some time now. They’ve gone 1-4 in their last 5 games against the Giants, Panthers, Redskins, Saints, and Cowboys. Atlanta should be able to pull everything back together and get back in the playoff picture with a BIG win over the Bucs. Pick – Atl by 20 and OVER

Car (+3) @ NYJ O/U 41.5

I’m running out of time here on my picks, I’m just going to keep this short and sweet. Sanchez is terrible at home. Pick – Car by 7 and UNDER

Jax (+3.5) @ SF O/U 42.5

Gore vs. Jones-Drew and over 1000 miles of traveling after Thanksgiving….Pick – SF by 10 and OVER

KC (+14) @ SD O/U 45

I need SD to blow the Chiefs out today in order to stay relevant in my Fantasy leagues…Pick – SD by 17 and UNDER

CHI (+11) @ Min O/U 47

Favre and his league leading passer rating are playing at home for what seems like the 37^th time this season. Pick – Min by 14 and OVER

Ari (+3) @ Ten O/U 45

Arizona plays better on the road than at home and Vince Young still hasn’t convinced me to jump on the bandwagon. Pick – Ari by 10 and OVER

Pit (NL) @ Bal O/U NL

Ben R. isn’t playing this weekend, so that makes for an interesting matchup of the Ravens defense against the stick figure the Steelers are starting at QB, Dennis Dixon. Pick – Bal wins a close and entertaining game.

NE (+3) @ NO O/U 56.5

I have to take the Pats in this one because the torch hasn’t officially been passed down to the Saints and the Pats aren’t just going to roll over. Pick – NE by 10 and UNDER

Week 12 Picks

First off, I just want to thank everyone that's been following my blog for the past few weeks. Surprisingly, these blogs are way harder to promote than you can imagine.

Next, I wanted to give a shout out to the men and women overseas that don't have the luxury of being with friends and family this holiday season. Their sacrifice and commitment is second to none and I dare anyone to tell them otherwise. The blood, sweat, and tears that have been shed since 9/11 will certainly be remembered by my family this Thanksgiving and I would venture to say that many other families out there can say the same.

Before we get started here with picks, I'd like to mention that my record last week was 10-6 against the spread, 14-2 straight up, and 8-7-1 on the over/unders. So let's get those tickets ready to Vegas....I'm on a roll!

Now, on with the picks!

Green Bay (-12) @ Detroit O/U 48

This game just reeks. Detroit is coming off of a huge win against the Browns and will be playing without their starting QB (I stand corrected...Adam Schefter just tweeted that Stafford will start this week...Gutsy.). This was a no-brainer during the Brett Favre days in Packerland, but now that Dr. Aaron and Mr. Rodgers are playing QB for the Pack...anything's possible! My brain tells me Green Bay should enjoy a nice feast of tenderlions this Thanksgiving, but my gut tells me never to listen to my brain when it comes to the NFL. So....GB by 10 and UNDER

Oakland (+14) @ Dallas O/U 40

The Cowboys defense is just plain nasty. So nasty that Redskins QB, Jason Campbell, completed 13 of 13 passes on 3rd down for 150 yards and the Skins could only manage 6 points. This week the Cowboys offense was stripped by the local media of whatever shred of manhood they were clinging on to. I look for them to put the naysayers to bed and go looking for dinner against the lowly Raiders. Dallas by 17 and OVER.

NYG (-7) @ Denver O/U 42.5

Both teams are 1-4 in their last 5 games and have been written off by many so-called experts. Everyone had assumed that the "old" Giants were back after they jumped out to a commanding lead against the bandwagon Falcons. However, the Giants were outscored 24-14 in the second-half, but held on to win by a FG in OT. I believe this game will be low scoring and the Giants should be able to edge the overachieving Broncos with a late FG. Giants by 3 and UNDER

Week 12 Picks will be continued tomorrow! I hope everyone enjoys family, friends, football, turkey, stuffing, and dessert, in that specific order, this Thanksgiving. Best wishes!

All we could put together was one lousy TD?

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys – 11/22/09

Running Game Time Diary

12:03 – Just settled into the IKEA chair that was given to us by my wife’s sister and husband. Thanks guys for making football Sunday so comfortable. Felix with an excellent return out to the 35 yard line. It looks like his legs are back for the first time since coming back from injury a couple of weeks ago. That’s a good sign.

12:05 – Fox just zoomed in on Big Albert Haynesworth on the sideline….wearing street clothes…what a relief.

12:06 – In typical Tony Romo fashion, he over throws Witten on 3^rd and 5 and is fortunate that it wasn’t picked off.

12:08 – Huge 3^rd and 1 stand by the Cowboys D. Keith Brooking has been the biggest acquisition for the Cowboys this season. Brooking looks like he should’ve been a character in the movie Gladiator. He just reminds me of this burly warrior that feasts on huge turkey legs and then snatches up a couple of women when it’s time for bed.

12:14 – RUN, RUN, RUN, RUN, RUN….I like where Garrett is going with his play calling.

12:15 – Just as I wrote the previous line…Barber fumbles and Romo injures himself making the tackle after. Maybe I should stop writing. Cue the eerie Kay Jewelers commercial…the one where the guy makes a comment about how bad the storm is and his wife says something cheesy and he follows it with up with “I’m right here, and I always will be.” I still have no idea how he got from the storm to opening up that flashy necklace.

12:19 – Jason Campbell makes his one and only highlight reel play of the season. He spins out the grasp of THREE Cowboys and converts a 3^rd and 13.

12:24 – Great shot of Dave Campo (yeah the former head-coach) manning up to Terrence Newman (the most overrated player on the Cowboys). I would to run see Campo sucker punch Newman like Buddy Ryan did to Kevin Gilbride.

12:26 – Martellus Bennett just made his first significant catch of the season…in week 11. Remember all the talk about “Double Dynamite” before the season started? Maybe, they just wanted to ease into it.

12:28 – The Redskins have exactly one running back left in the game. So, Jason Campbell will have to throw the ball 40-50 times today...(smiling).

12:31 – Back-to-back weeks with scoreless first quarters for Dallas, yuck. It’s sad when our most valuable player after the first quarter is Tony Romo and it’s not for his passing ability. He saved a sure fire touchdown when he made the tackle after Barber’s fumble.

12:34 – Brooking CRUSHES Campbell for a 6 yard sack! I can’t say enough about him…Uh oh, Newman kills us again with an illegal hands to the face penalty….HOW CAN YOU PUT YOUR HANDS IN SOMEONE’S FACE WHEN YOU KNOW IT’S ILLEGAL?

12:39 – Rock Cartwright makes his one and only highlight reel play of the year to convert a 3^rd and 2. (Shaking my head)

12:42 – Campbell get CRUSHED by Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Spencer…but guess what? He completes an 18 yard pass to Santana Moss to convert ANOTHER 3^rd and 8 situation.

12:46 – Redskins run a draw on 3^rd and 15 and settle for a FG. I sometimes wish the Cowboys would implement the FG strategy. FG’s are highly underrated in the NFL.

12:50 – The new Mastercard commercial with Peyton Manning is hilarious. I hope that he goes into acting full-time after retirement from the NFL. I’m afraid he’ll end up coaching some poor franchise that’s in an impossible situation for a few seasons, compiling an awful record and thus tarnishing is image forever with the younger generation. PLEASE PEYTON….DO NOT TRY TO COACH!

12:54 – Fox just cut to a highlight from the Vikings-Seahawks game. Favre to Harvin...what a combo.

12:55 – Roy Williams makes his presence felt with a key DROP on 3^rd down, again. Fool me once….shame on you? Fool me twice…shame on…you’re not gonna fool me again! Roy, please just take off your pads and give them to the equipment manager and turn in your pass to Valley Ranch before you leave the stadium. Thanks.

1:12 – Just noticed a graphic showing the Cowboys were about to be shut out in the first half of consecutive games for the first time since 2002. If we don’t get a FG soon, I might have to take a lap around my apartment complex to calm myself down.

1:16 – 2^nd and 23 from the Washington 43 yard line….pass complete to Bennett (3^rd big catch of the game) for 12 yards. Field Goal Range!!!

1:19 – 3^rd down: Romo to Williams….DROP. FOLK misses a FG from 40 yards. I’m depressed.

1:20 – Side note: I just checked in on the all-important Lions-Browns game and this is how bad those defenses stink: 24-24 with 5:01 left to play in the first half. Matt Stafford has thrown for 270 yards and 3 scores. Brady Quinn has thrown for 163 yards and 3 scores. They are terrible.

1:26 – Another one of those crazy challenges/ booth replays that happens in EVERY Dallas game. This one spurned from a play in which Campbell was running for his life and just ho-hum tossed the ball out of bounds as he stepped on the sideline. How can the Refs drop the ball on so many calls? How many zebras are out on the field? This game is still depressing.

1:30 – Troy and Joe are still rambling on and on about this booth replay and the repercussions of overturning the delay of game penalty. If I can sit here in my chair and know exactly what the call should be and where the ball should be spotted, but all of the refs on the field cannot even figure out how to clear this up, the NFL has a way bigger problem than Rush Limbaugh.

1:33 – Skins missed FG after all of that hoopla. I now understand why everyone in Washington and Dallas are fed up with their respective head-coaches: Washington 3 - Dallas 0 at the half. Break time! (Lunch, beer, laundry, and some more beer)

1:48 – Second half starts off just like it left off. Washington’s Devin Thomas has his career-best kickoff return out to the Wash 44 yard line.

1:58 – Campbell is 8-8 for 90 yards on 3^rd down so far this game. Unacceptable.

2:02 – It’s always nice to see Romo throwing out of his own end-zone. It’s kind of like running into your girlfriend at the movies and she happens to be with her “best” friend...who's a guy. It’s a little threatening, probably harmless, but you’re just waiting for her to screw it up.

2:07 – Campbell to Cartwright for 29 yards. We’re getting carved up by Washington’s scrubs. I feel helpless. I wish I had that “guy” that could take care of things like this. You always see them in those CIA/FBI thrillers, where they need some “specialist” to take out an impossible target. Target = Jerry Jones

2:14 – Romo airmails Williams on a 3^rd down play deep in their own territory. Our defense needs to make a BIG play. They’ve played their asses off up to this point, holding Washington to 3 points, and it’s about time that Campbell makes a critical mistake.

2:18 – Great pressure on Campbell again on 3^rd down…he completes ANOTHER 3^rd down pass for a first down. I’m glad Campbell saved his best game of the season for the Cowboys. The Redskins have cost me exactly 2 weeks worth of wins in my pick’em league because of Campbell’s ineptitude at QB.

2:22 – Campbell is now 11-11 passing on 3^rd down for 145 yards. Luckily, his last completion was short of the sticks. Field goal is good: Washington 6 – Dallas 0

2:27 – Romo rolls right and hits Miles Austin for a big gain! Why haven’t we thrown deep to Austin this game? Oh I forgot, we keep throwing the ball to Roy Williams.

2:29 – Following up the big play to Austin, Romo is sacked for a 5 yard loss.

2:31 – Back-to-back 1^st down passing plays for the Cowboys for a combined -5 yards. RUN the ball.

2:32 – Both 2^nd down plays have combined for 23 yards after those abysmal pass plays.

2:34 – 4^th and 2 for the Cowboys and Romo was in the grasp of the rookie, Brian Orakpo, and he forces a throw that’s picked off. Now I want throw something. Only in sports can you fail so many times at doing your job and still keep your job. Amazing.

2:36 – I’m almost certain the NFL instructed the Offensive coordinators in this game to keep the score low. I haven’t seen a single pass over 15 yards the entire game.

2:43 – Missed FG for Washington again! Wow, there’s no reason we should be in this game.

2:46 – Joe Buck just announced Romo’s QB rating – 35. Ouch. I think Chris Simms had a higher rating last week.

2:49 – Amazingly, Romo has hit Austin twice and Witten twice during their 5 play 50 yard drive. Who’s name wasn’t mentioned in that sentence? Roy E. Williams. Sit down, Roy.

2:52 – TOUCHDOWN Boys! Romo finds Patrick Crayton after buying some time and the Cowboys take a one point lead. Come on Defense it’s time to unleash DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff!

2:58 – Mike Jenkins goes to the ground for what seems to be the 8^th time in the past two weeks. Get out of the game. Where are the doctors in situations like this? If he keeps this up next week, I’m writing a letter to the head trainer of the Cowboys. Not only does it SLOW the game way down, it also makes Dallas appear to be desperate that Jenkins remain in the game.

3:02 – FINALLY! Spencer comes up with a huge interception after Bowen got a hand on Campbell’s pass. The Cowboys are kneeling it to clinch their 7^th win of the season. Ugly, horrific, boring, anticlimactic….insert your own negative adjective here to describe what everyone just witnessed.

A few thoughts about the game:

• There’s no reason Dallas should have won this game. The game-ball should go to Suisam who went 2 for 4 on field goals for Washington and unintentionally saved Wade Phillips from the media this week.
• If this is the same Dallas team that knocked off the Eagles in Philly earlier this month, I’m not looking forward to see how far we regress when December rolls around.
• Wade, oh Wade. You’re hanging by a thread big guy. He may be safe for now, but his team is seriously under-performing against inferior opponents. Nine times out of ten, that comes down to poor preparation and poor coaching.

NFL - Week 11 Picks

NFL Week 11 Breakdown

Lines are courtesy of www.bodog.com

Miami (+3) @ Carolina Over/Under 42.5

Ronnie Brown has been ruled out of this matchup between 4-5 teams with a foot injury he suffered last week against the Bucs. Not to be out done, Carolina’s one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both questionable. This game is a wife’s dream because both teams run the ball so much that the clock NEVER stops. It’s like watching Greg Maddux go eight innings without breaking a sweat and you haven’t even finished your hot dog yet. My gut tells me not to bet against Jake the Great and not to overlook Carolina’s record last year. Pick - Carolina by 7 and OVER

Cleveland (+3.5) @ Detroit O/U 38

(Shaking my head) If Brady Quinn can’t throw for 300 yards against this defense…he never will. Detroit’s pass defense is dead last in the league and they’ve given up 20 touchdown passes and a staggering 107 QB rating. I’m still not buying into the Browns. Pick – Detroit by 10 and UNDER

Buffalo (+9) @ Jacksonville O/U 43

I tend to like Buffalo when they’re matched up against a team that really has no identity on offense. Jacksonville appears to be a run first team by averaging over 140 yards rushing, but they’ve won three of their past four games relying on David Garrard and the passing game. This doesn’t bode well for the Jags considering they’re up against league’s leading ball-hawk. Look for the Jags to pull off a close victory, but the Bills will cover the 9 point spread. Pick – Jags by 4 and UNDER

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Kansas City O/U 40

Sunday’s game against the Steelers caps off a terrible week for the Chiefs. First they released their franchise running back, Larry Johnson, due to off the field issues and lack of production. Next, Dwayne Bowe was suspended for the next four games for using a diuretic during training camp. Now, they’re facing a Pittsburgh team that would love nothing more than to tear them apart this Sunday and leave no doubt that they belong in the Super Bowl discussion. Pick – Pittsburgh by 17 and OVER

Indianapolis (-1) @ Baltimore O/U 44

In their first game since they matched up against “Cleveland Browns Era” Bill Belichick, Indy looks to remain undefeated against Ray Lewis and a furious Ravens squad (See Brady Quinn here). Who am I to pick against General Manning? I’m pretty sure he radios in the defensive audibles to Gary Brackett while he’s shooting commercials between possessions. Pick – Indy by 3 and UNDER

Atlanta (+7) @ NY Giants O/U 46

Atlanta’s offensive line has been labeled as “soft” after the New England game earlier this year. When you pair that with the fact that New York is coming off a bye week and their defensive front is as good as any in the NFL, the magic 8-ball says the “outlook not so good”. Pick – NY by 13 and UNDER

49ers (+7) @ Green Bay O/U 42

If Coach Singletary can stick to the ground game and keep Green Bay’s offense off the field, the 49ers have a good chance to keep this close. The 49ers are coming off of a quasi bye-week since they played Chicago last Thursday. I think the 49ers will cover the spread and possibly win straight up. Pick – GB by 3 and OVER

Seattle (+11) @ Minnesota O/U 46.5

Brett Favre’s home passer rating is a torrid 113…Pick – Min by 17 or more and UNDER

Washington (+11) @ Dallas O/U 41.5

Last week, Jason Campbell was given enough time in the pocket due to Denver’s undersized defensive line and their 4-3 scheme. That luxury is now gone and the Redskins face two of the fiercest pass rushers in the NFL in DeMarcus Ware (7 sacks) and Jay Ratliff (4 sacks). Look for the Dallas offense to rebound and try to open up the passing game by establishing the run early on. Pick – Dallas by 13 and OVER

New Orleans (-11) @ Tampa Bay O/U 51

Drew Brees is going up against a mediocre pass defense in Tampa Bay, but the number that jumps out is 19. That’s how many touchdown passes the Bucs have given up this season, the third most in the league. The one drawback to this matchup is in the last 10 meetings, the margin of victory was more than 10 only three times. New Orleans is also 4-6 on grass in their last 10 games. The Bucs cover the spread but the Saints pull away late. Pick – New Orleans by 10 and OVER

Arizona (-9) @ St. Louis O/U 47

Kurt Warner makes his return to St. Louis and he brings along the best Arizona Cardinal team that’s ever taken the field. No joke. Warner is 3-0 all-time, as a Cardinal, when he makes the trip to the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. He’s also thrown for over 800 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in those contests. Pick – Arizona by 20 and UNDER

NY Jets (+10.5) @ New England O/U 45

Rex Ryan has the least enviable job in sports this week. Back in Week 2, his Jets pulled off an unexpected victory against a timid Tom Brady. They were full of swagger and the trash talking was hardly at a premium. Since that game, Brady has thrown for 17 TD’s and only 4 INT’s and the Jets have won just 2 of their last seven games. Add that to the fire Coach Bill Belichick was under during the course of the week and the final product should go something like this…Pick – Patriots by 21 and OVER

Cincinnati (-10) @ Oakland O/U 36

UPSET of the week alert! My gut tells me that these three things will happen on Sunday for the Raiders: Chad Ocho Cinco will have exactly 3 heated conversations with Carson Palmer due to the play of Oakland’s shut-down corner, Nnamdi Asomugha. Cincinnati’s offense will look lost and the commentators will automatically discredit everything they’ve done this season. Sebastian Janikowski will hit four field goals of 40 yards or more and the Raiders will pull off another upset at home. Pick – Oak by 3 and UNDER

San Diego (NL) @ Denver O/U – N/A

Will Kyle Orton play? Does it matter? San Diego has put together an impressive four-game winning streak including wins against the Giants and Eagles. Denver, on the other hand, has lost three straight. I’m sure if Orton plays, the line will be something like DEN -3. It doesn’t matter to me if John Elway comes out of retirement to suit up this Sunday…Pick – SD by 9 and UNDER 44

Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago O/U 45

Andy Reid has to prove these four things before the Eagles can make me a believer: A.) Stick to one QB and drop the whole Mike Vick/wildcat formation B.) Fire the guy that convinces him to challenge the most ridiculous plays and lose timeouts C.) Figure out how to manage the clock at the end of games D.) STOP throwing the ball 50 times and start letting your defense win some games, instead of having them bail your offense out. Pick – Phi by 3 and OVER

Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston O/U 48

Texans fans aren’t going to like this, but the loss of Owen Daniels was WAAYY bigger than most people thought. Daniels was the safety valve to the high-powered Texans passing attack. He also provided over the middle routes that opened up the outside for Andre Johnson. Now, the Titans can clampdown the outside routes and really rush the passer. Controversy at the running back position doesn’t give me any confidence in the Texans heading into Monday Night. This looks like a classic 24-21 game and it will be another happy homecoming for Vince Young. Pick – Tennessee by 3 and UNDER

I hope everyone enjoys the games on Sunday. Please remember our troops overseas during next week’s holiday festivities.